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Mogi Mirim vs Santacruzense — Paulista Série B 2026

Mogi Mirim
Mogi Mirim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santacruzense
Santacruzense
M. Monteiro 53'
6/13/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mogi Mirim41%
×Draw27%
Santacruzense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mogi Mirim
1.35
Santacruzense
1.15

Mogi Mirim creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Mogi Mirim
1.40
Santacruzense
1.10

allows per match

Mogi Mirim
1.20
Santacruzense
1.30

finishing

Mogi Mirim+0.00on par
Santacruzense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mogi Mirim ↓

Santacruzense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mogi Mirim or draw
68%
Mogi Mirim or Santacruzense
73%
Draw or Santacruzense
59%

Winning margin

Mogi Mirim wins by 2+
19%
Santacruzense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mogi Mirim 1+ goals
74%
Mogi Mirim 2+ goals
39%
Mogi Mirim 3+ goals
15%
Santacruzense 1+ goals
68%
Santacruzense 2+ goals
32%
Santacruzense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mogi Mirim (draw refunded)
56%
Santacruzense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mogi Mirim at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Santacruzense away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mogi Mirim attack 1.40 + Santacruzense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Santacruzense attack 1.10 + Mogi Mirim defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mogi Mirim scores more
41%
level
27%
Santacruzense scores more
32%

Mogi Mirim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mogi Mirim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
M. Monteiro
82'
Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mogi Mirim vs Santacruzense

Mogi Mirim beat Santacruzense 1-0 in Paulista Série B on June 13, 2026.

Goals: M. Monteiro (53').