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Mogi Mirim vs Prudentópolis — Serie D 2026

Mogi Mirim
Mogi Mirim
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Prudentópolis
Prudentópolis
5/27/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho (Limeira, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mogi Mirim39%
×Draw23%
Prudentópolis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mogi Mirim
1.67
Prudentópolis
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Mogi Mirim
1.33
Prudentópolis
0.67

allows per match

Mogi Mirim
2.67
Prudentópolis
2.00

finishing

Mogi Mirim+0.00on par
Prudentópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mogi Mirim ↓

Prudentópolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mogi Mirim or draw
61%
Mogi Mirim or Prudentópolis
77%
Draw or Prudentópolis
61%

Winning margin

Mogi Mirim wins by 2+
19%
Prudentópolis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mogi Mirim 1+ goals
81%
Mogi Mirim 2+ goals
50%
Mogi Mirim 3+ goals
23%
Prudentópolis 1+ goals
81%
Prudentópolis 2+ goals
50%
Prudentópolis 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mogi Mirim (draw refunded)
50%
Prudentópolis (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mogi Mirim at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Prudentópolis away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mogi Mirim attack 1.33 + Prudentópolis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Prudentópolis attack 0.67 + Mogi Mirim defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mogi Mirim scores more
39%
level
23%
Prudentópolis scores more
39%

Mogi Mirim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mogi Mirim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Mogi Mirim 2–1 Prudentópolis

Mogi Mirim beat Prudentópolis 2-1 in Serie D on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Major José Levy Sobrinho (Limeira, São Paulo).