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Moghreb Tetouan vs Youssoufia Berrechid — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
12/25/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 5Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan47%
×Draw27%
Youssoufia Berrechid26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.40
Youssoufia Berrechid
0.96

Moghreb Tetouan creates 46% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
Youssoufia Berrechid
0.95

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Youssoufia Berrechid
1.72

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
74%
Moghreb Tetouan or Youssoufia Berrechid
73%
Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid
53%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
23%
Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
75%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
41%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
17%
Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
62%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
25%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
65%
Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
47%
level
27%
Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
26%

Moghreb Tetouan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Moghreb Tetouan 0–0 Youssoufia Berrechid

Moghreb Tetouan and Youssoufia Berrechid drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on December 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah in Rabat.