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Moghreb Tetouan vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
5/3/2021Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 14Grand Stade de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan43%
×Draw30%
Rapide Oued ZEM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.15
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.85

Moghreb Tetouan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 60 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.72

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.23

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
73%
Moghreb Tetouan or Rapide Oued ZEM
70%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
57%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
18%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
68%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
32%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
11%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
57%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
21%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
61%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.72 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
43%
level
30%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
27%

Moghreb Tetouan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 Rapide Oued ZEM

Moghreb Tetouan and Rapide Oued ZEM drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on May 3, 2021.

The match was played at Grand Stade de Tanger in Tanger.