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Moghreb Tetouan vs Maghreb Fès — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
9/20/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 3Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan36%
×Draw31%
Maghreb Fès33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.04
Maghreb Fès
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
Maghreb Fès
0.99

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
Maghreb Fès
1.01

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
67%
Moghreb Tetouan or Maghreb Fès
69%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
64%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
14%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
65%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
28%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
9%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
62%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
26%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
52%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
36%
level
31%
Maghreb Fès scores more
33%

Moghreb Tetouan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 Maghreb Fès

Moghreb Tetouan and Maghreb Fès drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.