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Moghreb Tetouan vs Ittihad Khemisset — Botola 2 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
3 – 1
Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
11/21/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan52%
×Draw28%
Ittihad Khemisset20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.40
Ittihad Khemisset
0.75

Moghreb Tetouan creates 87% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.53
Ittihad Khemisset
1.03

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.47
Ittihad Khemisset
1.27

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
80%
Moghreb Tetouan or Ittihad Khemisset
72%
Draw or Ittihad Khemisset
48%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
26%
Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
75%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
41%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
17%
Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
53%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
17%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
72%
Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.47 · 30 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.53 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
52%
level
28%
Ittihad Khemisset scores more
20%

Moghreb Tetouan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moghreb Tetouan vs Ittihad Khemisset

Moghreb Tetouan beat Ittihad Khemisset 3-1 in Botola 2 on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.