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Moghreb Tetouan vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
12/25/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 14Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan31%
×Draw29%
FAR Rabat40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.00
FAR Rabat
1.19

FAR Rabat creates 19% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.08
FAR Rabat
1.40

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.99
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
60%
Moghreb Tetouan or FAR Rabat
71%
Draw or FAR Rabat
69%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
11%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
63%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
26%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
8%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
70%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
33%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
43%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.99 · 89 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.08 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

FAR Rabat attack 1.40 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
31%
level
29%
FAR Rabat scores more
40%

FAR Rabat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Moghreb Tetouan 1–2 FAR Rabat

FAR Rabat beat Moghreb Tetouan 2-1 in Botola Pro on December 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.