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Modriča vs Zvijezda 09 — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 09
6/3/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 34Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Modriča43%
×Draw26%
Zvijezda 0931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.46
Zvijezda 09
1.19

Modriča creates 23% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 79 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Zvijezda 09
1.27

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Zvijezda 09
1.22

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Zvijezda 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
69%
Modriča or Zvijezda 09
74%
Draw or Zvijezda 09
57%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
21%
Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
77%
Modriča 2+ goals
43%
Modriča 3+ goals
18%
Zvijezda 09 1+ goals
70%
Zvijezda 09 2+ goals
33%
Zvijezda 09 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
58%
Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.27 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Modriča scores more
43%
level
26%
Zvijezda 09 scores more
31%

Modriča at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modriča vs Zvijezda 09

Modriča beat Zvijezda 09 4-2 in 1st League - RS on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.