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Modriča vs Tekstilac Derventa — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
1 – 1
Tekstilac Derventa
Tekstilac Derventa
8/28/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 3Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Modriča56%
×Draw24%
Tekstilac Derventa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.67
Tekstilac Derventa
0.88

Modriča creates 90% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 53 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Tekstilac Derventa
0.64

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Tekstilac Derventa
1.64

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Tekstilac Derventa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Tekstilac Derventa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
80%
Modriča or Tekstilac Derventa
76%
Draw or Tekstilac Derventa
44%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
31%
Tekstilac Derventa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
81%
Modriča 2+ goals
50%
Modriča 3+ goals
23%
Tekstilac Derventa 1+ goals
59%
Tekstilac Derventa 2+ goals
22%
Tekstilac Derventa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
74%
Tekstilac Derventa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Tekstilac Derventa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Tekstilac Derventa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tekstilac Derventa attack 0.64 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Modriča scores more
56%
level
24%
Tekstilac Derventa scores more
20%

Modriča at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modriča vs Tekstilac Derventa

Modriča and Tekstilac Derventa drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.