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Modriča vs Sloboda Novi Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sloboda Novi Grad
Sloboda Novi Grad
3/26/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 19Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Modriča47%
×Draw26%
Sloboda Novi Grad27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.52
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.10

Modriča creates 38% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 65 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.09

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.34

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Sloboda Novi Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
73%
Modriča or Sloboda Novi Grad
74%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Grad
53%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
24%
Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
78%
Modriča 2+ goals
45%
Modriča 3+ goals
20%
Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals
67%
Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals
30%
Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
63%
Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Sloboda Novi Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.09 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Modriča scores more
47%
level
26%
Sloboda Novi Grad scores more
27%

Modriča at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modriča vs Sloboda Novi Grad

Sloboda Novi Grad beat Modriča 3-0 in 1st League - RS on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.