Modriča 2–0 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad: Result & Stats

Modriča

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

4/13/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 25Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Modriča57%

×Draw23%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModričaExpected goals in this matchSloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.00

Modriča

1.86

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

1.00

Modriča creates 86% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 51 away

1.70

creates per match

0.88

1.11

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Modriča

1.70

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.88

allows per match

Modriča

1.11

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Modriča or draw

80%

Modriča or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

77%

Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

43%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+

33%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals

84%

Modriča 2+ goals

55%

Modriča 3+ goals

28%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals

63%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals

26%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)

74%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Modriča scores more

57%

level

23%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more

20%

Modriča at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Modriča 2–0 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Modriča beat Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2-0 in 1st League - RS on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.

Modriča vs Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

1st League - RS: Modriča 2–0 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad