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Modriča vs Leotar — 1st League - RS 2019

Modriča
Modriča
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leotar
Leotar
4/30/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 29Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Modriča49%
×Draw26%
Leotar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modriča
1.50
Leotar
1.00

Modriča creates 50% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 63 away

creates per match

Modriča
1.70
Leotar
0.89

allows per match

Modriča
1.11
Leotar
1.30

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par
Leotar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Leotar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Modriča or draw
75%
Modriča or Leotar
74%
Draw or Leotar
51%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+
25%
Leotar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals
78%
Modriča 2+ goals
44%
Modriča 3+ goals
19%
Leotar 1+ goals
63%
Leotar 2+ goals
26%
Leotar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)
66%
Leotar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Leotar away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Leotar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leotar attack 0.89 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Modriča scores more
49%
level
26%
Leotar scores more
25%

Modriča at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modriča vs Leotar

Modriča beat Leotar 2-0 in 1st League - RS on April 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić in Modriča.