Modriča 2–0 FK Romanija Pale: Result & Stats

Modriča

FT

2 – 0

FK Romanija Pale

3/27/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 22Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Modriča56%

×Draw23%

FK Romanija Pale20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModričaExpected goals in this matchFK Romanija Pale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.96

Modriča

1.77

FK Romanija Pale

0.96

Modriča creates 84% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 49 away

1.70

creates per match

0.80

1.11

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Modriča

1.70

FK Romanija Pale

0.80

allows per match

Modriča

1.11

FK Romanija Pale

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par

FK Romanija Pale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

FK Romanija Pale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Modriča or draw

80%

Modriča or FK Romanija Pale

77%

Draw or FK Romanija Pale

44%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+

32%

FK Romanija Pale wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals

83%

Modriča 2+ goals

53%

Modriča 3+ goals

26%

FK Romanija Pale 1+ goals

62%

FK Romanija Pale 2+ goals

25%

FK Romanija Pale 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)

73%

FK Romanija Pale (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

FK Romanija Pale away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.84 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + FK Romanija Pale defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

FK Romanija Pale attack 0.80 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Modriča scores more

56%

level

23%

FK Romanija Pale scores more

20%

Modriča at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff