Modriča 1–1 Borac Kozarska Dubica: Result & Stats

Modriča

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Borac Kozarska Dubica

4/24/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 27Stadion Dr. Milan Jelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Modriča62%

×Draw21%

Borac Kozarska Dubica17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModričaExpected goals in this matchBorac Kozarska Dubica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.93

Modriča

2.02

Borac Kozarska Dubica

0.93

Modriča creates 117% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 64 away

1.70

creates per match

0.75

1.11

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Modriča

1.70

Borac Kozarska Dubica

0.75

allows per match

Modriča

1.11

Borac Kozarska Dubica

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modriča+0.00on par

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modriča ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Modriča or draw

83%

Modriča or Borac Kozarska Dubica

79%

Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica

38%

Winning margin

Modriča wins by 2+

38%

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Modriča 1+ goals

87%

Modriča 2+ goals

60%

Modriča 3+ goals

33%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals

61%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals

24%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Modriča (draw refunded)

79%

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modriča at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modriča attack 1.70 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.02

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + Modriča defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Modriča scores more

62%

level

21%

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more

17%

Modriča at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Modriča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff