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Modern Coast Rangers vs Nairobi Stima — Super League 2018

Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
FT
0 – 1
Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
8/5/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers36%
×Draw27%
Nairobi Stima36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modern Coast Rangers
1.25
Nairobi Stima
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers
1.19
Nairobi Stima
1.69

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers
0.81
Nairobi Stima
1.31

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par
Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

Nairobi Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw
64%
Modern Coast Rangers or Nairobi Stima
73%
Draw or Nairobi Stima
64%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
16%
Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
71%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
36%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
13%
Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
71%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
36%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
50%
Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.19 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nairobi Stima attack 1.69 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more
36%
level
27%
Nairobi Stima scores more
36%

Modern Coast Rangers at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Modern Coast Rangers 0–1 Nairobi Stima

Nairobi Stima beat Modern Coast Rangers 1-0 in Super League on August 5, 2018.