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Modern Coast Rangers vs Kisumu All Stars — Super League 2018

Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
FT
2 – 1
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
4/3/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers50%
×Draw28%
Kisumu All Stars22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modern Coast Rangers
1.35
Kisumu All Stars
0.80

Modern Coast Rangers creates 69% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 102 away

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers
1.22
Kisumu All Stars
0.89

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers
0.72
Kisumu All Stars
1.49

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw
78%
Modern Coast Rangers or Kisumu All Stars
72%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
50%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
24%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
74%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
39%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
15%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
55%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
19%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
69%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.49 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.22 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.89 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more
50%
level
28%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
22%

Modern Coast Rangers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Modern Coast Rangers 2–1 Kisumu All Stars

Modern Coast Rangers beat Kisumu All Stars 2-1 in Super League on April 3, 2018.