Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Modern Coast Rangers vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
FT
2 – 1
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
9/16/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers45%
×Draw29%
Kibera Black Stars26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modern Coast Rangers
1.25
Kibera Black Stars
0.89

Modern Coast Rangers creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 109 away

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers
1.19
Kibera Black Stars
0.96

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers
0.81
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw
74%
Modern Coast Rangers or Kibera Black Stars
71%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
55%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
20%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
71%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
36%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
13%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
59%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
22%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
63%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.19 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.96 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more
45%
level
29%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
26%

Modern Coast Rangers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modern Coast Rangers vs Kibera Black Stars

Modern Coast Rangers beat Kibera Black Stars 2-1 in Super League on September 16, 2018.