Modern Coast Rangers 1–0 KCB: Result & Stats

Modern Coast Rangers

FT

1 – 0

KCB

2/17/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers33%

×Draw33%

KCB34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modern Coast RangersExpected goals in this matchKCB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.92

Modern Coast Rangers

0.91

KCB

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

1.22

creates per match

1.13

0.72

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers

1.22

KCB

1.13

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers

0.72

KCB

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

KCB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw

66%

Modern Coast Rangers or KCB

67%

Draw or KCB

67%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+

12%

KCB wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals

60%

Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals

23%

Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals

6%

KCB 1+ goals

60%

KCB 2+ goals

23%

KCB 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)

50%

KCB (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

KCB away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.22 + KCB defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.91

KCB attack 1.13 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more

33%

level

33%

KCB scores more

34%

KCB at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff