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Modern Coast Rangers vs Isibania — Super League 2018

Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
FT
1 – 0
Isibania
Isibania
9/5/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers62%
×Draw25%
Isibania13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modern Coast Rangers
1.58
Isibania
0.58

Modern Coast Rangers creates 172% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers
1.22
Isibania
0.44

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers
0.72
Isibania
1.94

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par
Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

Isibania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw
87%
Modern Coast Rangers or Isibania
75%
Draw or Isibania
38%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
34%
Isibania wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
79%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
47%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
21%
Isibania 1+ goals
44%
Isibania 2+ goals
12%
Isibania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
82%
Isibania (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.22 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.58

Isibania attack 0.44 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more
62%
level
25%
Isibania scores more
13%

Modern Coast Rangers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modern Coast Rangers vs Isibania

Modern Coast Rangers beat Isibania 1-0 in Super League on September 5, 2018.