Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Modena vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Modena
Modena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
3/13/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 30Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Modena42%
×Draw27%
Spezia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modena
1.33
Spezia
1.08

Modena creates 23% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 98 away

creates per match

Modena
1.30
Spezia
1.12

allows per match

Modena
1.05
Spezia
1.36

finishing

Modena+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Modena or draw
70%
Modena or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
58%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+
19%
Spezia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals
74%
Modena 2+ goals
38%
Modena 3+ goals
15%
Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
29%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)
58%
Spezia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.30 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Spezia attack 1.12 + Modena defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Modena scores more
42%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
30%

Modena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Modena 3–0 Spezia

Modena beat Spezia 3-0 in Serie B on March 13, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.