Modena 1–3 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sassuolo

4/12/2025

Serie B · Round 33Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Modena32%

×Draw26%

Sassuolo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.45

Modena

1.21

Sassuolo

1.45

Sassuolo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 19 away

1.30

creates per match

1.84

1.05

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Modena

1.30

Sassuolo

1.84

allows per match

Modena

1.05

Sassuolo

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modena+0.00on par

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Modena or draw

57%

Modena or Sassuolo

74%

Draw or Sassuolo

68%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

13%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

70%

Modena 2+ goals

34%

Modena 3+ goals

12%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

77%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

42%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

43%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.30 + Sassuolo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sassuolo attack 1.84 + Modena defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Modena scores more

32%

level

26%

Sassuolo scores more

43%

Sassuolo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff