Modena 2–1 Empoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Empoli

D. Tonoli 66'

E. Gliozzi 45' (pen)

J. Ceesay 22'

10/24/2025

Serie B · Round 9Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Modena42%

×Draw26%

Empoli32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchEmpoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Modena

1.44

Empoli

1.23

Modena creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.25

creates per match

1.27

1.19

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Modena

1.25

Empoli

1.27

allows per match

Modena

1.19

Empoli

1.64

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Modena-0.39scores less

Empoli-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Empoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Modena or draw

68%

Modena or Empoli

74%

Draw or Empoli

58%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

20%

Empoli wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

76%

Modena 2+ goals

42%

Modena 3+ goals

18%

Empoli 1+ goals

71%

Empoli 2+ goals

35%

Empoli 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

57%

Empoli (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 7 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.25 + Empoli defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Empoli attack 1.27 + Modena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Modena scores more

42%

level

26%

Empoli scores more

32%

Modena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

D. Tonoli

Modena · D

8.9

Match Events

22'

J. Ceesay↳ F. Carboni

30'

Salvatore Elia

30'

Rareș Ilie

37'

Stiven Shpendi

45+4'

Simone SantoroPenalty confirmed

45'

E. GliozziPenalty

46'

L. Ignacchiti← R. Ilie

50'

Francesco Zampano

57'

B. Moruzzi← F. Carboni

57'

P. Pellegri← S. Shpendi

66'

D. Tonoli↳ S. Santoro

68'

F. Di Mariano← G. Defrel

68'

B. Popov← J. Ceesay

69'

A. Sersanti← N. Pyyhtia

69'

P. Mendes← E. Gliozzi

74'

G. Beyuku← L. Zanimacchia

79'

80'

83'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaEmpoli

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots6

6Corners5

18Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots6

4On Target1

3Off Target3

4Blocked2

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

424Total Passes336

365Accurate Passes275

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Serie B: Modena 2–1 Empoli

Modena beat Empoli 2-1 in Serie B on October 24, 2025.

Goals: J. Ceesay (22'), E. Gliozzi (45' pen), D. Tonoli (66').

Modena controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.

Modena vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Modena 2–1 Empoli