Modena 2–0 Carrarese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Modena

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Carrarese

A. Palumbo 80'

C. Cauz 42'

11/9/2024

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Modena49%

×Draw26%

Carrarese25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ModenaExpected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.00

Modena

1.52

Carrarese

1.00

Modena creates 52% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 38 away

1.30

creates per match

0.95

1.05

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Modena

1.30

Carrarese

0.95

allows per match

Modena

1.05

Carrarese

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modena+0.00on par

Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Modena or draw

75%

Modena or Carrarese

74%

Draw or Carrarese

51%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+

25%

Carrarese wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals

78%

Modena 2+ goals

45%

Modena 3+ goals

20%

Carrarese 1+ goals

63%

Carrarese 2+ goals

26%

Carrarese 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)

66%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.30 + Carrarese defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Carrarese attack 0.95 + Modena defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Modena scores more

49%

level

26%

Carrarese scores more

25%

Modena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

C. Cauz

Modena · D

8.0

Match Events

27'

F. Oliana← M. Coppolaro

37'

Grégoire Defrel

42'

C. Cauz

53'

D. Bouah← S. Zanon

53'

L. Cerri← L. Cherubini

61'

61'

69'

70'

71'

L. Magnino← T. Battistella

75'

A. Capello← S. Shpendi

75'

M. Finotto← S. Giovane

78'

Marco Imperiale

80'

A. Palumbo↳ G. Caso

84'

M. Cotali← R. Idrissi

84'

G. Zaro← A. Palumbo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ModenaCarrarese

Overview

44%Possession56%

10Total Shots7

4Corners3

16Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target1

6Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

361Total Passes452

265Accurate Passes368

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1