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Modena vs Cagliari — Serie B 2018

Modena
Modena
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cagliari
Cagliari
2/3/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 23Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Modena35%
×Draw30%
Cagliari36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modena
1.06
Cagliari
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 21 away

creates per match

Modena
1.30
Cagliari
1.10

allows per match

Modena
1.05
Cagliari
0.81

finishing

Modena+0.00on par
Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Modena or draw
64%
Modena or Cagliari
70%
Draw or Cagliari
65%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+
14%
Cagliari wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals
65%
Modena 2+ goals
29%
Modena 3+ goals
9%
Cagliari 1+ goals
66%
Cagliari 2+ goals
29%
Cagliari 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)
49%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Cagliari away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.30 + Cagliari defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cagliari attack 1.10 + Modena defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Modena scores more
35%
level
30%
Cagliari scores more
36%

Cagliari at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modena vs Cagliari

Modena beat Cagliari 2-0 in Serie B on February 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.