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Modena vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Modena
Modena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avellino
Avellino
8/31/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 2Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Modena54%
×Draw26%
Avellino20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modena
1.54
Avellino
0.83

Modena creates 86% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Modena
1.25
Avellino
0.48

allows per match

Modena
1.19
Avellino
1.82

finishing

Modena-0.39scores less
Avellino+0.02on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Modena or draw
80%
Modena or Avellino
74%
Draw or Avellino
46%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+
28%
Avellino wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals
79%
Modena 2+ goals
45%
Modena 3+ goals
20%
Avellino 1+ goals
56%
Avellino 2+ goals
20%
Avellino 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)
73%
Avellino (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 7 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.25 + Avellino defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Avellino attack 0.48 + Modena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Modena scores more
54%
level
26%
Avellino scores more
20%

Modena at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modena vs Avellino

Modena and Avellino drew 1-1 in Serie B on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.