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Modena vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Modena
Modena
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ascoli
Ascoli
3/1/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 27Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Modena45%
×Draw27%
Ascoli29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modena
1.40
Ascoli
1.06

Modena creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 114 away

creates per match

Modena
1.30
Ascoli
1.08

allows per match

Modena
1.05
Ascoli
1.50

finishing

Modena+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Modena or draw
71%
Modena or Ascoli
73%
Draw or Ascoli
55%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+
21%
Ascoli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals
75%
Modena 2+ goals
41%
Modena 3+ goals
17%
Ascoli 1+ goals
65%
Ascoli 2+ goals
29%
Ascoli 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)
61%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.30 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Modena defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Modena scores more
45%
level
27%
Ascoli scores more
29%

Modena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Modena 0 – 1 Ascoli

Ascoli beat Modena 1-0 in Serie B on March 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.