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Modena U19 vs Cittadella U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Modena U19
Modena U19
FT
3 – 4
Cittadella U19
Cittadella U19
2/22/2025Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 20Stadio Comunale Leo Vicini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Modena U1954%
×Draw21%
Cittadella U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modena U19
2.10
Cittadella U19
1.38

Modena U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 83 away

creates per match

Modena U19
2.19
Cittadella U19
1.37

allows per match

Modena U19
1.39
Cittadella U19
2.01

finishing

Modena U19+0.00on par
Cittadella U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena U19 ↓

Cittadella U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Modena U19 or draw
75%
Modena U19 or Cittadella U19
79%
Draw or Cittadella U19
46%

Winning margin

Modena U19 wins by 2+
32%
Cittadella U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Modena U19 1+ goals
88%
Modena U19 2+ goals
62%
Modena U19 3+ goals
35%
Cittadella U19 1+ goals
75%
Cittadella U19 2+ goals
40%
Cittadella U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Modena U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Cittadella U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Cittadella U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena U19 attack 2.19 + Cittadella U19 defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.10

Cittadella U19 attack 1.37 + Modena U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Modena U19 scores more
54%
level
21%
Cittadella U19 scores more
25%

Modena U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Modena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modena U19 vs Cittadella U19

Cittadella U19 beat Modena U19 4-3 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Leo Vicini in Savignano sul Panaro.