Modbury Jets 5–2 Port Adelaide Pirates

Modbury Jets

FT

5 – 2

Port Adelaide Pirates

4/23/2022

South Australia State League 1 · Round 8Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Modbury Jets65%

×Draw18%

Port Adelaide Pirates17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modbury JetsExpected goals in this matchPort Adelaide Pirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.22

Modbury Jets

2.52

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.22

Modbury Jets creates 107% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

2.55

creates per match

1.32

1.12

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Modbury Jets

2.55

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.32

allows per match

Modbury Jets

1.12

Port Adelaide Pirates

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Port Adelaide Pirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw

83%

Modbury Jets or Port Adelaide Pirates

82%

Draw or Port Adelaide Pirates

35%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+

44%

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals

92%

Modbury Jets 2+ goals

71%

Modbury Jets 3+ goals

45%

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals

70%

Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals

34%

Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)

79%

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Port Adelaide Pirates away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 2.55 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.52

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Modbury Jets defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Modbury Jets scores more

65%

level

18%

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more

17%

Modbury Jets at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff