Modbury Jets 0–2 Fulham United: Result & Stats

Modbury Jets

FT

0 – 2

Fulham United

9/11/2021

South Australia State League 1 · Round 21Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Modbury Jets55%

×Draw22%

Fulham United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modbury JetsExpected goals in this matchFulham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.22

Modbury Jets

2.01

Fulham United

1.22

Modbury Jets creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

2.55

creates per match

1.32

1.12

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Modbury Jets

2.55

Fulham United

1.32

allows per match

Modbury Jets

1.12

Fulham United

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Fulham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Fulham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw

77%

Modbury Jets or Fulham United

78%

Draw or Fulham United

45%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+

33%

Fulham United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals

87%

Modbury Jets 2+ goals

59%

Modbury Jets 3+ goals

32%

Fulham United 1+ goals

70%

Fulham United 2+ goals

34%

Fulham United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)

71%

Fulham United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Fulham United away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 2.55 + Fulham United defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.01

Fulham United attack 1.32 + Modbury Jets defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Modbury Jets scores more

55%

level

22%

Fulham United scores more

23%

Modbury Jets at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff