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Modbury Jets vs Campbelltown City — South Australia NPL 2026

Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Campbelltown City
Campbelltown Cityadvanced
A. Mullen 78' (pen), 41'
8/24/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Semi-finalSmith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Modbury Jets32%
×Draw22%
Campbelltown City45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modbury Jets
1.58
Campbelltown City
1.90

Campbelltown City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 91 away

creates per match

Modbury Jets
1.79
Campbelltown City
1.95

allows per match

Modbury Jets
1.85
Campbelltown City
1.37

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par
Campbelltown City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Campbelltown City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw
55%
Modbury Jets or Campbelltown City
78%
Draw or Campbelltown City
68%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+
15%
Campbelltown City wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals
79%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
47%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
21%
Campbelltown City 1+ goals
85%
Campbelltown City 2+ goals
56%
Campbelltown City 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
42%
Campbelltown City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

Campbelltown City away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.37 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 1.79 + Campbelltown City defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

Campbelltown City attack 1.95 + Modbury Jets defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Modbury Jets scores more
32%
level
22%
Campbelltown City scores more
45%

Campbelltown City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Campbelltown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
A. Mullen
78'
P. Wilson
78'
A. MullenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Modbury Jets 0 – 2 Campbelltown City

Campbelltown City beat Modbury Jets 2-0 in South Australia NPL on August 24, 2024.

Goals: A. Mullen (41', 78' pen).

The match was played at Smith Partners Stadium in Adelaide.