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Moca vs Atlético Pantoja — Liga Mayor 2020

Moca
Moca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Pantoja
Atlético Pantoja
2/28/2026Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Winners Stage - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Moca36%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pantoja38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moca
1.27
Atlético Pantoja
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 79 away

creates per match

Moca
1.22
Atlético Pantoja
1.72

allows per match

Moca
0.93
Atlético Pantoja
1.32

finishing

Moca+0.00on par
Atlético Pantoja+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moca ↓

Atlético Pantoja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Moca or draw
62%
Moca or Atlético Pantoja
74%
Draw or Atlético Pantoja
64%

Winning margin

Moca wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Pantoja wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Moca 1+ goals
72%
Moca 2+ goals
36%
Moca 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Pantoja 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Pantoja 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Pantoja 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Moca (draw refunded)
48%
Atlético Pantoja (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moca at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.93 · 73 matches

Atlético Pantoja away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moca attack 1.22 + Atlético Pantoja defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlético Pantoja attack 1.72 + Moca defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moca scores more
36%
level
26%
Atlético Pantoja scores more
38%

Atlético Pantoja at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Pantoja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moca vs Atlético Pantoja

Moca and Atlético Pantoja drew 2-2 in Liga Mayor on February 28, 2026.