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MO Bejaia vs Olympique Medea — Ligue 1 2018

MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
1/4/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MO Bejaia45%
×Draw32%
Olympique Medea24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MO Bejaia
1.10
Olympique Medea
0.71

MO Bejaia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

creates per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
Olympique Medea
0.68

allows per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
Olympique Medea
1.47

finishing

MO Bejaia+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MO Bejaia ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

MO Bejaia or draw
76%
MO Bejaia or Olympique Medea
68%
Draw or Olympique Medea
55%

Winning margin

MO Bejaia wins by 2+
19%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

MO Bejaia 1+ goals
67%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
30%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
10%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
51%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
16%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
65%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MO Bejaia at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MO Bejaia attack 0.73 + Olympique Medea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Olympique Medea attack 0.68 + MO Bejaia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

MO Bejaia scores more
45%
level
32%
Olympique Medea scores more
24%

MO Bejaia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "MO Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: MO Bejaia 1–1 Olympique Medea

MO Bejaia and Olympique Medea drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa).