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MO Bejaia vs AS Ain Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
10/20/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MO Bejaia48%
×Draw29%
AS Ain Mlila22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MO Bejaia
1.27
AS Ain Mlila
0.76

MO Bejaia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
AS Ain Mlila
0.78

allows per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
AS Ain Mlila
1.82

finishing

MO Bejaia+0.00on par
AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MO Bejaia ↓

AS Ain Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

MO Bejaia or draw
78%
MO Bejaia or AS Ain Mlila
71%
Draw or AS Ain Mlila
52%

Winning margin

MO Bejaia wins by 2+
22%
AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

MO Bejaia 1+ goals
72%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
36%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
14%
AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
53%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
18%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
69%
AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MO Bejaia at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

AS Ain Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MO Bejaia attack 0.73 + AS Ain Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.27

AS Ain Mlila attack 0.78 + MO Bejaia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MO Bejaia scores more
48%
level
29%
AS Ain Mlila scores more
22%

MO Bejaia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MO Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MO Bejaia 0 – 0 AS Ain Mlila

MO Bejaia and AS Ain Mlila drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa).