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MLHF vs SUMU/SOB — Suomen Cup 2018

MLHF
MLHF
FT
2 – 3
SUMU/SOB
SUMU/SOB
4/1/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKartano 2 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MLHF15%
×Draw17%
SUMU/SOB68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MLHF
1.15
SUMU/SOB
2.60

SUMU/SOB creates 126% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

MLHF
1.00
SUMU/SOB
1.71

allows per match

MLHF
3.50
SUMU/SOB
1.29

finishing

MLHF+0.00on par
SUMU/SOB+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MLHF ↓

SUMU/SOB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

MLHF or draw
32%
MLHF or SUMU/SOB
83%
Draw or SUMU/SOB
85%

Winning margin

MLHF wins by 2+
5%
SUMU/SOB wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

MLHF 1+ goals
68%
MLHF 2+ goals
32%
MLHF 3+ goals
11%
SUMU/SOB 1+ goals
92%
SUMU/SOB 2+ goals
73%
SUMU/SOB 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

MLHF (draw refunded)
18%
SUMU/SOB (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MLHF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

SUMU/SOB away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MLHF attack 1.00 + SUMU/SOB defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

SUMU/SOB attack 1.71 + MLHF defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

MLHF scores more
15%
level
17%
SUMU/SOB scores more
68%

SUMU/SOB at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "SUMU/SOB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLHF 2 – 3 SUMU/SOB

SUMU/SOB beat MLHF 3-2 in Suomen Cup on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Kartano 2 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.