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MLHF vs HPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

MLHF
MLHF
FT
0 – 5
HPS II
HPS II
3/15/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MLHF9%
×Draw13%
HPS II79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MLHF
1.00
HPS II
3.15

HPS II creates 215% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

MLHF
1.00
HPS II
2.80

allows per match

MLHF
3.50
HPS II
1.00

finishing

MLHF+0.00on par
HPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MLHF ↓

HPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

MLHF or draw
21%
MLHF or HPS II
87%
Draw or HPS II
91%

Winning margin

MLHF wins by 2+
3%
HPS II wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

MLHF 1+ goals
63%
MLHF 2+ goals
26%
MLHF 3+ goals
8%
HPS II 1+ goals
96%
HPS II 2+ goals
81%
HPS II 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

MLHF (draw refunded)
10%
HPS II (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MLHF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

HPS II away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MLHF attack 1.00 + HPS II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

HPS II attack 2.80 + MLHF defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

MLHF scores more
9%
level
13%
HPS II scores more
79%

HPS II at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "HPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MLHF vs HPS II

HPS II beat MLHF 5-0 in Suomen Cup on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.