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Mladost Ždralovi vs Bjelovar — Second NL 2022

Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bjelovar
Bjelovar
12/1/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi54%
×Draw24%
Bjelovar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Ždralovi
1.70
Bjelovar
0.99

Mladost Ždralovi creates 72% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
Bjelovar
1.19

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi
0.80
Bjelovar
1.47

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par
Bjelovar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

Bjelovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw
78%
Mladost Ždralovi or Bjelovar
76%
Draw or Bjelovar
46%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
30%
Bjelovar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
82%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
51%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
24%
Bjelovar 1+ goals
63%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
26%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
71%
Bjelovar (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

Bjelovar away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + Bjelovar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bjelovar attack 1.19 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more
54%
level
24%
Bjelovar scores more
22%

Mladost Ždralovi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Mladost Ždralovi 0–0 Bjelovar

Mladost Ždralovi and Bjelovar drew 0-0 in Second NL on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.