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Mladost Ždralovi vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
I. Jajalo 67'
I. Baraban 35'
9/24/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 6Igralište NK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi65%
×Draw20%
Belišće15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Ždralovi
2.17
Belišće
0.94

Mladost Ždralovi creates 131% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi
0.80
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw
85%
Mladost Ždralovi or Belišće
80%
Draw or Belišće
35%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
42%
Belišće wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
89%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
64%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
36%
Belišće 1+ goals
61%
Belišće 2+ goals
24%
Belišće 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
81%
Belišće (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.17

Belišće attack 1.07 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more
65%
level
20%
Belišće scores more
15%

Mladost Ždralovi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
I. Baraban
67'
I. Jajalo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Ždralovi vs Belišće

Mladost Ždralovi beat Belišće 2-0 in Second NL on September 24, 2022.

Goals: I. Baraban (35'), I. Jajalo (67').

The match was played at Igralište NK Mladost in Ždralovi.