Mladost Novi Sad 1–0 Radnički Sombor

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

1 – 0

Radnički Sombor

9/5/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad69%

×Draw18%

Radnički Sombor13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchRadnički Sombor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.94

Mladost Novi Sad

2.36

Radnički Sombor

0.94

Mladost Novi Sad creates 151% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

3.26

creates per match

1.29

0.58

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

3.26

Radnički Sombor

1.29

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.58

Radnički Sombor

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Radnički Sombor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

87%

Mladost Novi Sad or Radnički Sombor

82%

Draw or Radnički Sombor

31%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

46%

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

90%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

68%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

41%

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals

61%

Radnički Sombor 2+ goals

24%

Radnički Sombor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

84%

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 3.26 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.36

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

69%

level

18%

Radnički Sombor scores more

13%

Mladost Novi Sad at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff