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Mladost Novi Sad vs OFK Vršac — Prva Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
8/27/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 4GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad46%
×Draw28%
OFK Vršac25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.31
OFK Vršac
0.89

Mladost Novi Sad creates 47% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.29
OFK Vršac
0.89

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.89
OFK Vršac
1.34

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
75%
Mladost Novi Sad or OFK Vršac
72%
Draw or OFK Vršac
54%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
22%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
73%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
38%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
14%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
59%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
22%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
65%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
46%
level
28%
OFK Vršac scores more
25%

Mladost Novi Sad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Mladost Novi Sad 1–2 OFK Vršac

OFK Vršac beat Mladost Novi Sad 2-1 in Prva Liga on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at GAT Arena in Novi Sad.