Mladost Novi Sad 2–0 OFK Vršac: Result & Stats

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

2 – 0

OFK Vršac

4/17/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad65%

×Draw19%

OFK Vršac17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchOFK Vršac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.11

Mladost Novi Sad

2.36

OFK Vršac

1.11

Mladost Novi Sad creates 113% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 43 away

3.26

creates per match

1.65

0.58

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

3.26

OFK Vršac

1.65

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.58

OFK Vršac

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

OFK Vršac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

83%

Mladost Novi Sad or OFK Vršac

81%

Draw or OFK Vršac

35%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

42%

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

90%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

68%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

41%

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

67%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

30%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

80%

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 3.26 + OFK Vršac defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.36

OFK Vršac attack 1.65 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

65%

level

19%

OFK Vršac scores more

17%

Mladost Novi Sad at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff