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Mladost Novi Sad vs Mladost Lucani — Super Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
10/14/2022Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 15Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad35%
×Draw29%
Mladost Lucani36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.10
Mladost Lucani
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 147 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.63
Mladost Lucani
0.86

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.37
Mladost Lucani
1.57

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Mladost Lucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
64%
Mladost Novi Sad or Mladost Lucani
71%
Draw or Mladost Lucani
65%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
14%
Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
67%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
30%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%
Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
67%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
30%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
50%
Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.63 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
35%
level
29%
Mladost Lucani scores more
36%

Mladost Lucani at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs Mladost Lucani

Mladost Novi Sad and Mladost Lucani drew 1-1 in Super Liga on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.