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Mladost Novi Sad vs Metalac GM — Prva Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Metalac GM
Metalac GM
3/2/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 22GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad45%
×Draw29%
Metalac GM26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.27
Metalac GM
0.88

Mladost Novi Sad creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 70 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.29
Metalac GM
0.86

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.89
Metalac GM
1.26

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Metalac GM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
74%
Mladost Novi Sad or Metalac GM
71%
Draw or Metalac GM
55%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
21%
Metalac GM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
72%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
36%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
14%
Metalac GM 1+ goals
59%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
22%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
64%
Metalac GM (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
45%
level
29%
Metalac GM scores more
26%

Mladost Novi Sad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs Metalac GM

Mladost Novi Sad beat Metalac GM 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at GAT Arena in Novi Sad.