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Mladost Novi Sad vs Backa — Prva Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Backa
Backa
8/14/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 2Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad48%
×Draw29%
Backa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.29
Backa
0.81

Mladost Novi Sad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.29
Backa
0.74

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.89
Backa
1.29

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
77%
Mladost Novi Sad or Backa
71%
Draw or Backa
52%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
22%
Backa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
72%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
37%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
14%
Backa 1+ goals
56%
Backa 2+ goals
19%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
67%
Backa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Backa attack 0.74 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
48%
level
29%
Backa scores more
23%

Mladost Novi Sad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs Backa

Mladost Novi Sad beat Backa 1-0 in Prva Liga on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.