Mladost Novi Sad 4–2 Bačka 1901: Result & Stats

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

4 – 2

Bačka 1901

10/7/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad73%

×Draw16%

Bačka 190111%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchBačka 1901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.92

Mladost Novi Sad

2.63

Bačka 1901

0.92

Mladost Novi Sad creates 186% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

3.26

creates per match

1.26

0.58

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

3.26

Bačka 1901

1.26

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.58

Bačka 1901

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Bačka 1901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

89%

Mladost Novi Sad or Bačka 1901

84%

Draw or Bačka 1901

27%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

52%

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

93%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

73%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

48%

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

60%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

23%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

87%

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 3.26 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

73%

level

16%

Bačka 1901 scores more

11%

Mladost Novi Sad at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff