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Mladost Medoševac vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
1 – 0
Timočanin
Timočanin
10/7/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac47%
×Draw26%
Timočanin27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
1.50
Timočanin
1.08

Mladost Medoševac creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
73%
Mladost Medoševac or Timočanin
74%
Draw or Timočanin
53%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
23%
Timočanin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
78%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
44%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
19%
Timočanin 1+ goals
66%
Timočanin 2+ goals
29%
Timočanin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
63%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
47%
level
26%
Timočanin scores more
27%

Mladost Medoševac at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Mladost Medoševac 1–0 Timočanin

Mladost Medoševac beat Timočanin 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.