Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mladost Medoševac vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
2 – 3
Sinđelić
Sinđelić
3/17/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 22Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac42%
×Draw26%
Sinđelić32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
1.45
Sinđelić
1.22

Mladost Medoševac creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Sinđelić
1.32

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Sinđelić
1.58

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Sinđelić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
68%
Mladost Medoševac or Sinđelić
74%
Draw or Sinđelić
58%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
20%
Sinđelić wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
77%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
42%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
18%
Sinđelić 1+ goals
70%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
34%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
57%
Sinđelić (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
42%
level
26%
Sinđelić scores more
32%

Mladost Medoševac at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Medoševac vs Sinđelić

Sinđelić beat Mladost Medoševac 3-2 in Srpska Liga - East on March 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.