Mladost Medoševac 2–1 Rembas: Result & Stats

Mladost Medoševac

FT

2 – 1

Rembas

10/18/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 13Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac46%

×Draw24%

Rembas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost MedoševacExpected goals in this matchRembas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.25

Mladost Medoševac

1.64

Rembas

1.25

Mladost Medoševac creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

1.32

creates per match

1.39

1.11

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac

1.32

Rembas

1.39

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac

1.11

Rembas

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Rembas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Rembas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw

71%

Mladost Medoševac or Rembas

76%

Draw or Rembas

54%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+

24%

Rembas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals

81%

Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals

49%

Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals

23%

Rembas 1+ goals

71%

Rembas 2+ goals

36%

Rembas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)

61%

Rembas (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Rembas away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.95 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Rembas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rembas attack 1.39 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more

46%

level

24%

Rembas scores more

29%

Mladost Medoševac at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff