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Mladost Medoševac vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
2 – 1
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
11/1/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 15Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac74%
×Draw15%
Moravac Mrštane11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
2.75
Moravac Mrštane
0.95

Mladost Medoševac creates 189% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
89%
Mladost Medoševac or Moravac Mrštane
85%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
26%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
53%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
93%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
75%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
51%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
61%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
25%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
88%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.75

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
74%
level
15%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
11%

Mladost Medoševac at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Medoševac vs Moravac Mrštane

Mladost Medoševac beat Moravac Mrštane 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.