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Mladost Medoševac vs Kablovi Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
0 – 0
Kablovi Zaječar
Kablovi Zaječar
9/20/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 8Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac86%
×Draw9%
Kablovi Zaječar5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
3.58
Kablovi Zaječar
0.82

Mladost Medoševac creates 337% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Kablovi Zaječar
0.53

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Kablovi Zaječar
5.84

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Kablovi Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Kablovi Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
95%
Mladost Medoševac or Kablovi Zaječar
91%
Draw or Kablovi Zaječar
14%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
70%
Kablovi Zaječar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
97%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
86%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
67%
Kablovi Zaječar 1+ goals
56%
Kablovi Zaječar 2+ goals
20%
Kablovi Zaječar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
94%
Kablovi Zaječar (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Kablovi Zaječar away — creates 0.53, concedes 5.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Kablovi Zaječar defence 5.84 → ÷2 → 3.58

Kablovi Zaječar attack 0.53 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
86%
level
9%
Kablovi Zaječar scores more
5%

Mladost Medoševac at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Medoševac vs Kablovi Zaječar

Mladost Medoševac and Kablovi Zaječar drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.