Mladost Medoševac 4–0 Dunav Prahovo: Result & Stats

Mladost Medoševac

FT

4 – 0

Dunav Prahovo

8/30/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 4Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac50%

×Draw25%

Dunav Prahovo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost MedoševacExpected goals in this matchDunav Prahovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.08

Mladost Medoševac

1.61

Dunav Prahovo

1.08

Mladost Medoševac creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

1.32

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac

1.32

Dunav Prahovo

1.05

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac

1.11

Dunav Prahovo

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Dunav Prahovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw

74%

Mladost Medoševac or Dunav Prahovo

75%

Draw or Dunav Prahovo

50%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+

26%

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals

80%

Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals

48%

Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals

22%

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

66%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

29%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)

66%

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more

50%

level

25%

Dunav Prahovo scores more

26%

Mladost Medoševac at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff